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Writer's pictureJojo

2023 Tony Award Winner Predictions

Updated: May 3, 2023

It’s that time of year again and I’ve seen almost every musical nominated for best musical this year! I just need to see “Shucked” which I will hopefully have done in time before the award ceremony. Just like last year I will highlight the nominee I think deserves to win and the nominee that I think is most likely to win.


Deserves to win = blue

What/who I think will win = green


Best New Play:

- Ain't No Mo

-Between Riverside and Crazy

-Cost of Living

-Fat Ham

-Leopoldstadt


I must say, I haven’t seen many plays this season, so I’m not sure what I think deserves to win. I saw The Thanksgiving Play, however it is not nominated. So I guess that is what I think deserves to win. I certainly think it should have been nominated. I’ve heard good things about Leopoldstadt and I’m a fan of many of the cast members, so I won’t be surprised if it wins.


Best New Musical

-& Juliet

-Kimberly Akimbo

-New York, New York

-Shucked

-Some Like It Hot


I think “Some Like It Hot” will win and I think it is the most deserving to win. I enjoyed “Kimberly Akimbo”, but I have a feeling that Tony voters won’t take it seriously because it is slightly outlandish at times. On the other hand, I’m not totally sure how Tony voters will react to “Some Like It Hot” because of its themes of queerness and transness. Unfortunately, Broadway is known to be transphobic and this is the first show I've seen with strong trans representation. These themes may be too much for Tony voters to grasp. As for “New York, New York” it’s themes of love and immigration are lost because of how convoluted it is. After seeing its reviews, I’m not sure if it has a chance to win. I’ve heard good things about “Shucked”, it’s seemingly the fan favorite, but again I don’t think Tony voters will take it seriously. "& Juliet" was definitely not my favorite and although it has themes of feminism, as a jukebox musical it’s not original enough to win.


Best Play Revival

-A Doll’s House

-The Piano Lesson

-The Sign on Sidney Brustien’s Window

-Topdog/Underdog

I don’t know much about these plays, however my guess is that “The Piano Lesson” will win. I hope “The Sign On Sidney Brustein's Window” wins simply because I’m a Rachel Brosnahan fan.


Best Musical Revival

-Camelot

-Into The Woods

-Parade

-Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street


I strongly believe “Parade” should win. It blew me away and was probably my favorite show of the entire season. I enjoyed both “Into The Woods” and “Sweeney Todd”, however I didn’t notice anything super special about these revivals. I won’t be surprised if “Sweeney Todd” wins because everyone loves Sondheim, but I’m really hoping for “Parade” because I feel as though it did not get the love it deserved back in 1999.


Best Leading Actor in a Play

-Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Topdog/Underdog)

-Corey Hawkins (Topdog/Underdog)

-Sean Hayes (Good Night, Oscar) -Stephen McKinley Henderson (Between Riverside and Crazy)

-Wendell Pierce (Death of A Salesman)


I can’t particularly share my opinion on any of these nominees as I didn’t see any of their performances. I would love to go see more plays, so if I get the chance I will update this. Considering 2 people are nominated from “Topdog/Underdog” those votes will likely cancel each other out. Based on what I know about “Good Night, Oscar” I think Sean Hayes has a good chance of winning the award.


Best Leading Actress in A Play

-Jessica Chastain (A Doll’s House)

-Jodie Comer (Prima Facie)

-Jessica Hecht (Summer, 1976)

-Audra McDonald (Ohio State Murders)


Again, I don’t have an opinion on this as I’ve not seen any of these actresses' performances. That being said, this is purely a guess.


Best Leading Actress in A Musical

-Annaleigh Ashford (Sweeney Todd)

-Sara Bareilles (Into The Woods)

-Victoria Clark (Kimberly Akimbo)

-Micaela Diamond (Parade)

-Lorna Courtney (& Juliet)


I must say this lineup is intense. All of these women are phenomenal actresses. I think Annaleigh Ashford will be recognized for her portrayal as Mrs.Lovett because it was reminiscent of Angela Lansbury. I think Victoria Clark deserves to win because she truly acted like a teenager and she put on an emotional performance.


Best Leading Actor in a Musical

-Christian Borle (Some Like It Hot)

-J. Harrison Ghee (Some Like It Hot)

-Josh Groban (Sweeney Todd)

-Brian d’Arcy James (Into The Woods) -Ben Platt (Parade)

-Colton Ryan (New York, New York)


I love all of these actors. I won’t be shocked if Platt gets his second Tony win from this role. He’s so great at playing characters with challenging emotions. However, I think Colton Ryan is deserving of a Tony win by now. He has one of the most beautiful and unique voices out there and the fact that he learned several instruments for “New York, New York” was amazing. I think audiences will notice his talent and that he really stood out as Jimmy.


Best Featured Actor in a Play

-Jordan E. Cooper (Ain’t No Mo’)

-Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson)

-Arian Moayed (A Doll’s House) -Brandon Uranowitz (Leopoldstadt)

-David Zayas (Cost of Living)


I am a big fan of Uranowitz and I have a hunch that he will win.


Best Featured Actress in a Play

-Nikki Crawford (Fat Ham) -Crystal Lucas-Perry (Ain’t No Mo’)

-Miriam Silverman (The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window) -Katy Sullivan (Cost of Living)

-Kara Young (Cost of Living)

I did not see any of these performances, but I did see Crystal Lucas-Perry as John Adams in 1776 this season. She is a great actress, so I have hope she will win.


Best Featured Actor in a Musical

-Kevin Cahoon (Shucked)

-Justin Cooley (Kimberly Akimbo)

-Kevin Del Aguila (Some Like It Hot)

-Jordan Donica (Camelot)

-Alex Newell (Shucked)

I absolutely loved Cooley’s performance as Seth. He was just so lovable and sweet. He’s only 19 years old and it would be cool for a young person to receive this award! Kevin Del Aguila was great as well and I think Tony voters will have enjoyed his performance enough that he will win.


Best Featured Actress in a Musical

-Julia Lester (Into The Woods)

-Ruthie Ann Miles (Sweeney Todd)

-Bonnie Milligan (Kimberly Akimbo)

-Natasha Yvette William (Some Like It Hot) -Betsy Wolfe (& Juliet)


I have a feeling that Lester is a fan favorite, but I’m not really sure what new thing could be brought to the character of Little Red. I really enjoyed Milligan’s performance. She’s funny and a strong actor with a powerful voice. Wolfe is a great performer, but I don’t think the character of Anne showed off her skillset enough.


Best Direction of A Musical

-Michael Arden (Parade) -Lear deBessonet (Into The Woods)

-Casey Nicholaw (Some Like It Hot) -Jack O’Brien (Shucked)

-Jessica Stone (Kimberly Akimbo)


This is a tough category as well, but this revival of “Parade” was one of the best Broadway shows I’ve ever seen. Some Like It Hot was well put together, however I recognize Nicholaw more as a choreographer than a director.



Best Book of A Musical

-David Lindsay-Abaire (Kimberly Akimbo)

-Robert Horn (Shucked)

-Mattew Lopez and Amber Ruffin (Some Like It Hot)

-David West Read (& Juliet) -David Thompson and Sharon Washington (New York, New York)


I’ve yet to see “Shucked”, but after hearing that all the jokes are hilarious I think it will get love for its book. I think “Kimberly Akimbo” is deserving for their book as well because of how heartfelt it made the show and how the dialogue felt natural and realistic.

Best Original Score

-Almost Famous (Cameron Crowe & Tom Kitt)

-Kimberly Akimbo (Jeanine Tesori & David Lindsay-Abaire)

-KPOP (Helen Park & Max Vernon)

-Shucked (Shane McAnally & Brandy Clark)

-Some Like It Hot (Marc Shaiman & Scott Wittman)


I loved the music in “Almost Famous”, especially the songs that were new. Crowe’s work is what got me interested in 70s rock. “I wish Almost Famous” had been nominated for orchestrations because the way they reorchestrated old rock songs amazed me. Unfortunately, I don’t think “Almost Famous” will get the win it deserves and “Some Like It Hot” will be recognized for the score. I enjoyed the music of “Some Like it Hot”, especially how Shaiman reused “Let’s Be Bad” in a totally different context.


Best Choreography

-Steven Hoggett (Sweeney Todd)

-Casey Nicholaw (Some Like It Hot) -Susan Stroman (New York, New York)

-Jennifer Weber (& Juliet)

-Jennifer Weber (KPOP)


I think Casey Nicholaw is unmatched here because “Some Like It Hot” has multiple big dancing numbers. “Sweeney Todd” doesn’t have a lot of dancing, just a lot of movement. “New York, New York” had one memorable tap dancing number, but not as much dancing as one would expect. And because Weber is nominated twice for one category, her votes might get split.


Best Orchestrations

-John Clancy (Kimberly Akimbo)

-Jason Howland (Shucked)

-Charlie Rosen and Bryan Carter (Some Like It Hot) -Bill Sherman and Dominic Fallacaro (& Juliet) -Daryl Waters and Sam David (New York, New York)


Charlie Rosen has already won a couple of Tony awards, but I always love his orchestrations, so I hope he and Bryan Carter win. I think “& Juliet” will win because it had to reorchestrate so many pop songs and to be fair they did it well.


Best Scenic Design of a Play

-Miriam Beuther (Prima Facie)

-Tim Hatley and Andrzej Goulding (Life of Pi)

-Rachel Hauck (Good Night, Oscar)

-Richard Hudson (Leopoldstadt)

-Dane Laffrey and Lucy Mackinnon (A Christmas Carol)


I am indifferent on who wins this. Since most of these sets are minimalist, I think “Life of Pi” will take it.


Best Scenic Design of a Musical

-Beowulf Boritt (New York, New York)

-Mimi Lien (Sweeney Todd) -Scott Pask (Shucked)

-Scott Pask (Some Like Hot)

-Michael Yeargan and 59 Productions (Camelot)


“New York, New York” definitely had the most extravagant set, but I liked the “Some Like It Hot” set for all the white and blue colors.


Best Costume Design of a Play

-Tim Hatley, Nick Barnes, and Finn Caldwell (Life of Pi)

-Dominique Fawn Hill (Fat Ham)

-Brigette Reiffensutel (Leopoldstadt)

-Emilio Sosa (Ain’t No Mo)

-Eamilio Sosa (Good Night, Oscar)


Best Costume Design of a Musical

-Gregg Barnes (Some Like It Hot)

-Susan Hilferty (Parade)

-Jennifer Moeller (Camelot)

-Clint Ramos and Sophia Choi (KPOP) -Paloma Young (& Juliet)

-Donna Zakowska (New York, New York)


I think & Juliet is most likely to win and these costumes stood out to me. Similarly to last year's winner, “Six” these costumes are reminiscent of the renaissance period while also reminiscent of pop singers today. This fits perfectly in & Juliet because the original story of “Romeo & Juliet” takes place during the 1400s and because all of the songs that are used are pop songs it makes sense to give the costumes a modern spin. I thought out of all the costumes they were the most complex and many of them are transformative.


Best Sound Design of a Play

-Jonathan Deans and Taylor Williams (Ain’t No Mo)

-Carolyn Downing (Life of Pi)

-Joshua D. Reid (A Christmas Carol)

-Ben and Max Ringham (A Doll’s House)

-Ben and Max Ringham (Prima Facie)


Best Sound Design of a Musical

-Kai Harada (New York, New York)

-John Shivers (Shucked)

-Scott Lehrer and Alex Neumann (Into The Woods)

-Gareth Owen (& Juliet)

-Nevin Stienberg (Sweeney Todd)


To be honest I found all of the sound in the musicals I saw to be average. I felt “& Juliet” should have been louder. It was definitely difficult to fill the Sondheim Theatre because it's so wide and set up differently than most, but it’s the sound designers job to do so. I’m not an expert on sound design, but I see this as another award for “Shucked”.


Best Lighting Design in a Play

-Neil Austin (Leopoldstadt)

-Natasha Chivers (Prima Facie) -Jon Clark (A Doll’s House)

-Bradley King (Fat Ham)

-Tim Lutkin (Life of Pi)

-Jen Schriever (Death of a Salesman) -Ben Staton (A Christmas Carol)


Best Lighting Design in a Musical

-Ken Billington (New York, New York)

-Lap Chi Chu (Camelot)

-Heather Gilbert (Parade)

-Howard Hudson (& Juliet)

-Natasha Katz (Some Like It Hot)

-Natasha Katz (Sweeney Todd)

I think “& Juliet” will win because they had extravagant and colorful lighting. I’m honestly surprised they didn’t get nominated for scenic design.



I wish the “1776” revival got at least one nomination. It was certainly deserving because it changed so much from the original version, changing the casting entirely and making it a lot more interesting.

Additionally, I think “Almost Famous” deserved more love, it is such a seamless show and Cameron Crowe’s book is so iconic. He changed some of the book to be better fitting for the musical and I liked the new additions to it. I also think “Almost Famous” should have been nominated for orchestrations. I think Chris Wood and Casey Likes should have been nominated as well because their performances really stood out to me. Chris Wood played a strong Russel Hammond. Wood did justice to Russel by not completely straying from Billy Crudup’s portrayal of him, but he also added a new depth to him. It’s the same thing for Casey Likes’ portrayal of William Miller, not to mention his voice is gorgeous.

I’m shocked to see “New York, New York” get so many nominations after the poor reviews it got. And I’m surprised that “The Thanksgiving Play” didn’t get any nominations as it is still on Broadway and most of the plays nominated already closed. I thought it was a great play with a powerful message.

On top of this, I truly wish the Tony Awards had created a category specifically for gender non-confomring and nonbinary performers because there are so many on Broadway this year. Their statement about not wanting to change the rules during the season felt like a cop out. I feel like this should’ve been the year to do it and I’m hoping next year things will change.

Lastly, I just wanted to say I really enjoyed the performances of Phillipe Arroyo (from & Juliet) and Erin Rose Doyle (from Parade) and they have Tony Awards in my book <3.


Singing off,

-Jo


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